It's been a crazy year for movies and award shows (and literally everything else). The Oscars (my Superbowl) are allegedly going to be a live show, and while it will be a very different ceremony, I'm thrilled for any semblance of normalcy. I did my best to stream as many of the nominated films and watch as many of these performances as possible, but I still have a few to cram in before Sunday. I am getting very excited, people!!
Best Picture
The Father
Judas and the Black Messiah
Mank
Minari
Nomadland
Promising Young Woman
Sound of Metal
The Trial of the Chicago 7
Should Win: This is tough. Four of the nominated films were my favorite of the year. I would be very happy if Judas and the Black Messiah; Nomadland; Promising Young Woman; or Sound of Metal won the big award. If you haven't seen any of these, stop what you're doing and go watch any one of them. They'll blow you away.
Will Win: Nomadland. I think the buzz around this movie (and rightfully so) will push it into first place. The director has it in the bag, Frances McDormand is the favorite, and it was a really great film. I think it's got the momentum to bring home the gold.
Best Actor
Riz Ahmed, "Sound of Metal"
Chadwick Boseman, "Ma Rainey's Black Bottom"
Anthony Hopkins, The Father
Gary Oldman, Mank
Steven Yeun, Minari
Should Win: At the time of publishing, C&S has only seen half of Ma Rainey, but it only took half the film for me to see that Chadwick Boseman delivers an outstanding performance. In fact, I can only fully speak to Ahmed's performance in Sound of Metal, which was sensational, and he's spectacular as a deaf musician. I just don't think this is his year.
Will Win: Boseman.
Best Actress
Viola Davis, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
Frances McDormand, Nomadland
Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
Should Win: As much as I loved Frances McDormand in Nomadland (it's like the part was written specifically for her), I would love to see someone new get honored (she has already won twice!) I loved Carey Mulligan in Promising Young Woman, but is it an Oscar-worthy performance? Maybe not. From what I have seen of Viola Davis in Ma Rainey, she is fabulous, as usual. I'm just not sure that the competition is strong enough against McDormand.
Will Win: McDormand.
Best Supporting Actor
Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
Leslie "Burr, sir" Odom, Jr., One Night in Miami
Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
LaKeith "bring back Atlanta on FX" Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Should Win: Daniel Kaluuya, by a landslide, and dare I say he should have been included in the Best Actor category? The man just knocked our socks off with this role, amiright? Shout out to Paul Raci, who I had never heard of, and who delivers an outstanding subtle performance as a man running a retreat center for deaf addicts in recovery. He had his hands full with this role and he slays.
Will Win: Kaluuya.
Best Supporting Actress
Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
Glenn "always a bridesmaid" Close, Hillbilly Elegy
Olivia Colman, The Father
Amanda Seyfried, Mank
Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Should Win: This is another tough category. I'm secretly pulling for Glenn Close. The 8-time nominated veteran should have been awarded long ago, just not necessarily for this role. Maria Bakalova seemingly came out of nowhere and was tremendously over the top in Borat, but the Oscars hardly ever recognize comedies. Yuh-Jung Youn is a beloved South Korean actress who might just pull off the win.
Will Win: Based off award show season momentum, Yuh-Jung Youn is my bet.
Best Director
Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
David Fincher, Mank
Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
Emerald "best name ever" Fennell, Promising Young Woman
Should Win: I desperately want Emerald Fennell to get some sort of recognition for her outstanding film, so if she doesn't win for direction, I hope she has a shot at winning for producing or best original screenplay. I would also love to see Chloé Zhao win for Nomadland (and I think I will).
Will Win: Zhao.
